Last Race Before Little Rock…

Tomorrow is the big day! The St. Louis Track Club is hosting a 15K, the last race of the Frostbite Series.

I’m currently in 10th place in the series standings for my division. This is a three spot improvement from my standing due to my heroic performance in the half marathon two weeks ago. I’ve crunched the numbers and I’ve calculated the best overall finishing place I can possibly achieve would be seventh. There are several things that have to happen for me to end up with this lofty placing.

1) Jonathan Visky must not show up. A runner must appear in at least three races in the series to qualify for the age group awards. He’s finished second in our division in the two races he’s been in (thereby scoring more points then I will score in my four races), but if he somehow misses tomorrow’s run, he doesn’t qualify. Jonathan – you’ve got nothing to prove. Stay home!
2) I need to finish seventh in my age group among runners who are entered in the series in the 15K. Seventh would add 20 points to my standing for an overall total of 65 and would equal my half marathon placement.
3) I need to finish two places ahead of John Brenner. John and I are pretty equally matched – he’s beaten me in one of the three races I ran in, while I have nudged him out in the other two. John is ahead of me, but has run all four races. Maybe he’s getting tired. Of course, on my weekend ‘off’ I ran 39.3 miles in Florida.
4) I must finish no further then one position behind Kenneth Fagan, David Donald, and Michael Stanard. These three guys are behind me in the standings, but any of them that finish two positions or more ahead of me will pass me. This is no gimme – each of these guys has had a race where they finished as high as fifth overall in the division – my best finish has been seventh.
5) I must finish no further then two positions behind Doug Roley and three positions behind Terry Jones and Peter Fischer.

There is a ghost of a chance I could finish as high as sixth – I’d need to finish fifth in the age group, grabbing 30 points and Neil Berry would have to not show up.

So, against my better judgment and breaking the promise I made to all you readers (and myself), I am going to run tomorrow’s race full out. Or at least almost full out. My plan is to clock each mile below 8:00 during the run. I can’t run the race tactically, because I don’t know or recognize any of my competitors. So I just need to turn in a good time and let nature take its course. One more thing to root for is horrible weather – that could help Jonathan and Neil decide not to show up. Today we are getting lots of slushy snow so if this mess continues it could keep the field down.

On Sunday, I’ve got a special run planned. I don’t want to give it away at the moment because bad weather could cause me to skip it, but if nature allows, I’ll do it. And share on Monday of course…